For those looking to refinance their home, 2026 has been nothing short of frustrating. In February we were inching towards 5% rates, only to watch markets collapse and mortgage rates soar in response to the US war in Iran. As recent as last week, it appeared there was little hope in sight. So what changed?
War in Iran
Sunday we saw news break of what appears to be the most credible announcement for a deal to end the conflict in Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz. While long term, the financial costs incurred from this war may be monumental, short term it is a shot in the arm for investors as oil prices and other raw materials fall.
Meet Kevin
In addition to global conflict cooling, we have a critical change in leadership at the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh takes the helm of the chair of the Federal reserve and while maintains to be strictly independent, the fact of the matter is he was placed in his role by President Trump who has been vocal about the need for lower interest rates. We are also seeing some positive economic indicators such as job growth in recent months that may help the case to maintain, or even lower rates this year if inflation can cool with lower oil prices post the war in Iran.
Our Take
So what are we thinking at Accurowealth? Our inclination is that experts predicting no rate change are correct. It would be fiscally dangerous for the country to lower rates with the most recent inflation numbers. That being said, we fully expect Kevin to deliver a less hawkish message than that of Fed meetings past and offer a glimpse into lower rates before the end of the year. That alone could drop rates as soon as this week.
Stay tuned tomorrow as it will most certainly be an interesting day in the markets. If you’ve been on the fence about pulling the trigger on a refi, you may strongly consider getting pre-approved. If anything is certain it is rates are unpredictable. Best to take advantage while things are good.
