The past several months have been a series of ups, down, and false starts for dropping mortgage rates. In August, mortgage data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) estimated 1.6 million homeowners would benefit from refinancing after allowing for closing costs. By September, that number rose to more than 2 million as rates fell due to economic uncertainty spurred by a weak housing market and conflicting opinions on tariffs.
“If mortgage rates fall below 6.375% — that number would climb above 3 million” according to ICE. “In fact,” it continues, “if 30-year rates fall to 6.125%, some 4.8M mortgage holders would be in the money for a refinance.”
This morning, average rates for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages (the ones we quote throughout this news story) were down to 6.44% as of October 7th, 2025 according to Bankrate.
To put it simply, the lower mortgage rates fall, the more homeowners stand to gain by refinancing to a lower rate.
